A Suite of Predictive Models that Guide Game-Changing Market Strategies
Models Built To Fit
Farsight® Forecasting is part of a comprehensive and flexible Modeling Service Portfolio that combines state-of-the-art choice modeling with pragmatic, market-savvy application based on deep sector experience. Our predictive models have been used to forecast market response to transformative products and services of the past five decades, and they are guiding technology investments for some of the world’s largest corporations, as well as emerging enterprises that are reshaping the landscape. They are customized, fit-for-purpose models that can be scaled to match varied objectives, priorities and budgets in a way that gives all our clients high return on their research investment.
Our modeling architecture is contoured to accommodate virtually every type of dependent variable including discrete choice, purchase probabilities and volumetric projections. Models can be designed dynamically to project a cascade of market outcomes based on user-specified scenarios and competitive response inputs. We also devise multiple linked models to support enterprise-wide strategy development by predicting net return across business lines and audiences (e.g., end-users, channel partners).
- Asset Evaluation to select or prioritize development opportunities on a relative scale
- Market Optimization to identify the product, service or portfolio configuration likely to garner greatest return or the combination of claims most likely to support a value proposition
- Pricing Strategy to gauge elasticity and revenue optimization in the context of uncertain product or market conditions
- Demand Forecasting to project rate of uptake, identify the point of dynamic equilibrium, and develop revenue projections over a multi-year period
What Differentiates Us
- Modeling Flexibility and Versatility
Our models are both inventive and agile, thanks to an in-house group of industry-leading professionals who work as integrated project team members from the earliest stages of survey design through delivery of the final product. Nothing we do is off-the-shelf or constrained by standard packages because we are equipped to build our own. Farsight® models can “stretch” the design space with various adaptive techniques that let us collect more granular choice data without compromising model validity by overburdening respondents.
- Dynamic and Stochastic Modeling Capabilities
Forecast models can be built dynamically to predict, rather than assume, the point at which market equilibrium is reached, and to take account of market inflow and exit based on epidemiological trends, technology changes, and evolving customer definitions. They can also be fitted with Monte Carlo capabilities that distinguish between likely and remote outcomes to help quantify risk.
- Model Transparency and Customized Predictive Algorithms
Our models are built with open windows, not “black boxes.” We believe it’s important for clients making high-stakes decisions to understand how our models are engineered and to participate in the process by which all assumptions are developed. To transform model output into market projections, we calibrate and adjust for various types of overstatement by interpreting the data in market-sensitive ways. Drawing on evidence-based guidance and sector experience, our customized algorithms have enabled us to forecast behavior in “paradigm-shift” environments as well as more traditional markets.
- Integrated Multi-Stakeholder Model
We are well-known for models that reflect the complex interplay of various stakeholders, projecting outcomes that take account of joint decisions and interdependencies, including contract or formulary status, strength of recommendations, and other variables. Agent-based models can also be built to project the impact of exponentially complex social network interactions.
- Facile Simulator
Clients who want to keep their hands on the wheel have access to customized simulation decision-support tools that are fully documented and easy to use. Simulators can be structured to produce global and regional forecasts, as well as ad hoc segment-level projections for maximum flexibility, configured to produce graphic outputs as well as spreadsheet computations.